• Fri. Jul 19th, 2024

Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM)

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Columbia Sportswear fair value estimate is US$87.05
  • Current share price of US$76.41 suggests Columbia Sportswear is potentially trading close to its fair value
  • The US$73.13 analyst price target for COLM is 16% less than our estimate of fair value

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There’s really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company’s value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear

Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions) US$271.8m US$283.1m US$299.0m US$279.0m US$305.0m US$310.4m US$316.5m US$322.9m US$329.8m US$336.9m
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x4 Analyst x5 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 1.79% Est @ 1.94% Est @ 2.04% Est @ 2.12% Est @ 2.17%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6% US$253 US$245 US$240 US$208 US$212 US$200 US$190 US$180 US$171 US$162

(“Est” = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.1b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.3%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today’s value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$337m× (1 + 2.3%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.3%) = US$6.5b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$6.5b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$3.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$5.2b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$76.4, the company appears about fair value at a 12% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula – garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
NasdaqGS:COLM Discounted Cash Flow April 4th 2024

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company’s future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company’s future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company’s potential performance. Given that we are looking at Columbia Sportswear as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we’ve used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.148. Beta is a measure of a stock’s volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Columbia Sportswear

Strength

  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Luxury market.
Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 3 years.
  • Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won’t be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to “what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?” For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Columbia Sportswear, we’ve put together three further factors you should look at:

  1. Risks: Be aware that Columbia Sportswear is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about…
  2. Future Earnings: How does COLM’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we’re helping make it simple.

Find out whether Columbia Sportswear is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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