Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 2.9% better than analyst forecasts at US$605m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$0.19 per share, some 2.9% smaller than the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Columbia Sportswear after the latest results.
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Following last week’s earnings report, Columbia Sportswear’s nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to sink 17% to US$3.40 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.48 in 2025. So it looks like there’s been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results – there’s been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.
The average price target fell 12% to US$57.50, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Columbia Sportswear at US$79.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 5.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.6% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – Columbia Sportswear is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Columbia Sportswear going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don’t forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for Columbia Sportswear (1 shouldn’t be ignored) you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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