Columbia Sportswear Company (NASDAQ:COLM) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$605m, ahead of estimates by 2.9%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.19 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
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Following last week’s earnings report, Columbia Sportswear’s nine analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.39b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 17% to US$3.40 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.40b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.48 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.
See our latest analysis for Columbia Sportswear
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 12% to US$57.50, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Columbia Sportswear, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$79.00 and the most bearish at US$40.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.8% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining – Columbia Sportswear is expected to lag the wider industry.
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